Syria Monthly Report

Executive summary

International engagement

August saw a major inflection in Syrian–Israeli relations with discreet high-level talks in Paris involving senior Syrian and Israeli officials. Unlike Assad’s rigid approach, the transitional government under al-Sharaa signaled pragmatism, framing engagement as a pathway to reduce isolation and attract reconstruction support. Discussions focused on de-escalation in As-Sweida, border security, and humanitarian access, with tentative understandings around reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement. Yet, on-the-ground realities including Israeli raids, territorial positioning, and the first Israeli casualties inside Syria since Assad’s fall – risk overshadowing diplomacy and entrenching volatility along the frontier. While international actors welcomed Paris as a sign of Syria’s recalibrated foreign policy, unresolved disputes over the Golan Heights, domestic skepticism, and regional rivalries underscore the fragility of this opening and the possibility that it remains more symbolic than substantive..

Security, governance, and political stability

In the northeast, talks between Damascus and the SDF showed tentative progress on military integration but were overshadowed by political exclusion, tribal mobilization, and recurring clashes that keep the outlook uncertain. In As-Sweida, protests evolved into demands for independence, with new governance committees and a National Guard signaling a push for autonomy, though Damascus’s rejection, weak capacity, and worsening humanitarian conditions leave the province at risk of renewed confrontation.

Economic stability

In August, Syria’s food markets reflected deep fragmentation, with soaring prices in urban centers driven by climate shocks and speculation, while oversupply in the south left farmers unable to recover costs, underscoring uneven pressures across regions. The financial system remained strained by liquidity shortages, unreliable banking services, and damaged currency, pushing households toward Hawala networks and newly reopened global cryptocurrency platforms like Binance, which offer alternatives but carry high risks. Meanwhile, Damascus launched high-profile anti-narcotics operations, including its first joint seizure with Iraq and the arrest of a major trafficker, though the persistence of Captagon as a livelihood economy highlights the structural limits of enforcement.

The August heatwave, with temperatures 8–10°C above seasonal averages, has intensified Syria’s agricultural and humanitarian challenges. Crop losses in Aleppo, Hama, Ar-Raqqa, and Deir-ez-Zor reached 25–30%, wheat production fell to under one-third of national requirements, and livestock mortality rose due to dehydration and heat stress. Combined with electricity shortages limiting irrigation and cooling, these impacts drove sharp increases in food prices, worsening food insecurity for urban households and displaced families. Short-term coping measures by farmers and herders offer limited relief, highlighting the urgent need for humanitarian aid and medium-term resilience investments, including irrigation rehabilitation, livestock support, and market stabilization. 

Humanitarian Need

The return movements to Syria surged, with over 2.5 million refugees and IDPs crossing back since December 2024, driven largely by economic hardship, legal restrictions, and shifting host-country policies in Jordan, Lebanon, Türkiye, and Iraq. Many returnees, particularly to Homs, rural Damascus, Aleppo, and Daraa, confront destroyed housing, overstretched schools, strained health services, and limited livelihoods, revealing a stark gap between return pace and Syria’s capacity to absorb them. Regional pressures, including large-scale repatriations from al-Hol and al-Roj camps and unresolved foreign detainee cases, underscore that returns are driven more by push factors than by sustainable improvements inside Syria, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated humanitarian and donor support to prevent renewed displacement and support reintegration. 

Infrastructure and Services 

In August, Syria introduced measures to ease energy shortages, including Azerbaijani gas imports, expanded electricity hours, and fee exemptions for households, commercial, and industrial users. Power generation in key plants increased by 700–900 MW, benefiting urban centers such as Damascus, Aleppo, and Lattakia, though rural and conflict-affected areas like As-Sweida, Ar-Raqqa, and Al-Hasakeh continue to experience severe blackouts. Technical issues, damaged infrastructure, and security challenges persist, limiting supply reliability, while pilot projects and regional cooperation aim to improve distribution. These measures provide short-term relief and support industrial hubs, but systemic vulnerabilities and regional disparities remain, requiring sustained technical, financial, and security interventions.