Periodicals
CA—SYR’s monthly periodical report offers thematic analysis of critical dynamics throughout Syria that may impact donor-funded activities. Disaggregated by zone of control, our monthly reports include a timeline of critical events, select economic indicators, and provides localized research and analysis with a whole-of-Syria reach.
An archive of all HAT and CA-SYR periodicals — including past weekly and monthly reports — is forthcoming.
November ‘24 monthly report
Please note that a significant degree of this monthly report was researched, composed, and finalized prior to the overthrow of ousted president Bashar Al-Assad. CA–SYR is closely analyzing the very fluid situation and, thus, has not updated this Monthly Report to reflect the current status of Syria. However, for historical reference, CA–SYR felt it necessary to provide analysis on key dynamics in November.
The large-scale offensives in northern Syria which led to the overthrow of Assad and the fall of Damascus dominated events in late November. Earlier on, Israel upped its attacks on weapons facilities and inidividuals linked to Iran , to curb Iran’s path to Lebanon through Syria — the government at the time offered little resistance. Protestors in As-Sweida held fast to their anti-government sentiment, despite threats from Damascus. In the northeast, Turkish bombardment of infrastructure and oil refineries created fuel shortages, compounding economic and public health issues. Also, the ongoing fight against ISIS is yielding few successes, as the group’s evasive guerrilla tactics enable it to regroup in the Syrian desert. Flooding in the northwest devastated camps amid dwindling funding and opportunities to recover from disaster for residents.
October ‘24 monthly report
UNHCR launched an emergency appeal to support displaced Syrian and Lebanese nationals. Only a tiny proportion of this has been received, likely because of donor fatigue, multiple regional crises, and Damascus's incapacity to disengage from Iran. Damascus looks to be refusing to antagonize Israel or be drawn into regional hostilities with Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias, despite increasing Israeli encroachment into Syria. In south and central Syria, the government published its anticipated 2025 budget, placing emphasis on investment spending to boost the economy. In the northeast, Turkey responded to an attack on Ankara by bombing multiple administrative and military facilities, oil plants and civilian service-related infrastructure. Clashes between armed factions in northwest Syria have forced other factions to choose to either align more strongly with Turkey, or to continue to oppose normalization. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes hit Idleb and northern Aleppo, resulting in the displacement of thousands of civilians. The intensity of the strikes are expected to calm, as rumors of an HTS attack on government forces subside.
September ‘24 monthly report
War between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon has displaced more than 220,000 people and had a profound impact on the Syrian economy. The government risks being overburdened by the influx of people, amid its own economic struggles. In south and central Syria, a fuel crisis caused shortages in public transport, and increased electricity rationing. Oil shipments from Iran have slowed, amid threats of Israeli interception, while US sanctions have been extended to restrict Iranian vessels. In northeast Syria, the AANES rolled out a new curriculum, criticized for favoring Kurdish language and culture. In northwest Syria, the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) and UNICEF partnered to repair the Ain al Bayada water pumping station located in government-held areas to end the recurring water crisis in Al Bab city. Also, the SIG announced the dissolution of the Northern Falcons, a faction of the Syrian National Army (SNA) critical of Turkish—Syrian normalization in northern Aleppo. The issue has highlighted a clear division between the armed opposition who support and those who oppose normalization.
August ‘24 monthly report
In south and central Syria, the government’s push toward a cashless economy by asking farmers and workers to open bank accounts is premature – there is neither technical literacy nor the necessary infrastructure to handle the change. In As-Sweida, government forces are forcefully trying to stop the protest movement, ongoing for a year now. However, the governorate’s local militias are pushing back. In northeast Syria, taxi drivers went on strike after the AANES more than halved their subsidized diesel allocations amid a 92% decrease in budget for subsidies in 2024. In Deir-ez-Zor, Tribal Forces clashed with the SDF, damaging water stations, agricultural fields and displacing locals. In northwest Syria, opposition figures, activists, and Dignity Sit-In organizers founded the Supreme Council for the Revolutionary Command (SCRC) to protest Syrian-Turkish normalization. In Idleb, the SSG suspended the Paralympic Games after religious figures criticized the event, saying it violated religious rules, had pagan imagery and imitated the West.
July ‘24 monthly report
A request by eight EU member states for the EU to re-engage with Syria over a lasting political resolution is unlikely to be granted because of conflicting priorities among all EU member states and Syria's human rights abuses. In south and central Syria, the government is transitioning its 4.1 million subsidy recipients from an in-kind to a cash-based system, which may devalue subsidies due to inflation. July parliamentary elections saw low turnout and boycotts, with all elected candidates linked to the Ba’ath Party, signaling no real change. In northeast Syria, the Autonomous Administration (AANES) introduced a law to regulate the electricity sector, addressing the impacts of Turkish bombardment and encouraging private investment. The Administration also issued an amnesty law and hinted at reviving intra–Kurdish dialogue, possibly to show combined strength amid Syria-Turkey normalization concerns. In northwest Syria, protests in Bennsh led to an attack on a Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham police station, sparking a violent response. In a separate development, the Syrian government increasingly used drone attacks against opposition forces to maintain pressure and displace civilians near frontlines.
June ‘24 monthly report
Indications of a Syria-Turkey normalization process have resumed, with Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad showing openness to restoring relations, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan considering a meeting with Assad. However, full rapprochement is complicated by regional tensions and US influence. In south and central Syria, evidence of an ISIS hub in As-Sanamayn in Dar‘a can be seen in graffiti and videos of ISIS fighters, while in unrelated news, the Syrian Ministry of Defense plans to demobilize thousands of reservists. Also, Lattakia residents face severe water shortages. In northeast Syria, the Autonomous Administration (AANES) disclosed a budget deficit projected to reach $389 million by 2024; the AANES has also postponed its municipal elections. In northwest Syria, the Al-Bab local council reopened the Abu Al-Zendin crossing, after nearly four years, amid clashes between protestors and Turkish forces. The region also faces a health crisis with the potential closure of over 150 health facilities by June due to funding cuts.
May ‘24 monthly report
In May, discontent among Arab League members with President Bashar al-Assad was evident. The League postponed a Liaison Committee meeting with the Syrian government, denied Assad speaking time at the 33rd Summit in Bahrain, and withheld honors typically given to leaders. A fuel crisis struck south and central Syria after Iran stopped delivering oil for two months, leading to increased rationing of electricity and fuel, public transport disruptions, and higher market prices. The ruling Arab Ba’ath Party conducted direct leadership elections for the first time, concluding in May. The reelection of many senior members suggests minimal change. In northeast Syria, farmers protested against the purchase price for wheat set by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), claiming it barely covered production costs. AANES officials cited budget constraints, the Turkish bombardment, and falling global wheat prices as reasons for the low price. Controversially, the AANES also increased fuel and bread prices. In northwest Syria, students protested the appointment of Syrian government university graduates to Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) positions. Following a meeting with the SSG Prime Minister, a committee was formed to address the demands. There also remain ongoing protests against Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.
April ‘24 monthly report
In south and central Syria, the government introduced an electronic billing system to combat tax evasion, increase transparency, and automate tax calculation in various commercial sectors. Meanwhile, industrialists criticized the Ministry of Electricity's decision to raise electricity prices. In northeast Syria, the AANES confirmed the arrival of Syrian deportees from Iraq, aligning with Iraq's efforts to regulate labor migration. Christian-owned properties in Ar-Raqqa and Al-Thawrah were transferred to a protection directorate. In northwest Syria, protests against HTS and its leader continue to spread, despite failed reforms. HTS engages in dialogue with protestors to avoid security force escalation.
March ‘24 monthly report
The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, is making arrangements for the ninth session of the Syrian Constitutional Committee, due to convene in Geneva in April. An ongoing disagreement over the location, however, has led some parties to back out of the session. Protests erupted across Syrian Salvation Government (SSG)-held areas against a detainee tortured to death while in Hay‘at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) custody. Protestors called for the removal of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and the dissolution of the General Security Service. Food prices in south and central Syria rose significantly during Ramadan, making it difficult for households to buy essentials. Economic experts have noted higher-than-average price hikes in Syria compared to neighboring countries. In As-Sweida, a protestor was killed during an altercation with security forces near the April 7 Reconciliation Center. In northeast Syria, Avin Sweid was elected as co-chair of the Executive Council of the Autonomous Administration (AANES). In other developments, increased rainfall has benefitted cattle herders through reducing the need to buy costly barley and improving access to water.
February ‘24 monthly report
The US House of Representatives passed the anti-normalization act on 14 February, to be voted on by the Senate. The legislation is to prohibit “any official action to recognize or normalize relations with the Syrian government under President Bashar al-Assad”. In south and central Syria, the Syrian government increased the price of subsidized goods and basic services. Former opposition groups in Dar‘a have seemingly united to fight against both the Syrian government and alleged ISIS affiliates, most notably in Yadudeh and Mhajeh. In northeast Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces seized hundreds of thousands of Captagon pills in Al-Thawrah (Tabqa) and Ar-Raqqa. Meanwhile, alleged ISIS attacks in Al-Hasakeh and Quamishli cities signaled the ability of the group to inspire lone-wolf attacks in previously secure areas. In northwest Syria, tensions between the Mawali tribe and the Syrian National Army (SNA) rose after a tribal member detained by an unidentified SNA faction was tortured and killed. In response, the Mawali tribe called for its members to defect from the Amshat Division, an armed group. Fearing a possible military escalation , 400 families fled the area.
January ‘24 monthly report
During the 21st Astana Process in Kazakhstan’s capital, Russia, Turkey, and Iran agreed to de-escalation efforts in northwest Syria without any further agreement on steps to resolve the Syrian conflict. The US attacked Iran-backed militias after three US personnel were killed at its ‘Tower 22’ base in Jordan. In south and central Syria, local armed groups in As-Sweida offered to help Jordan combat cross-border narcotics smuggling. To the economy, President Bashar al-Assad issued decrees prohibiting residents from using foreign currency or pricing goods and services in any currency other than the Syrian pound. In northeast Syria, the Autonomous Administration ratified a new social contract, while the Syrian Democratic Council elected new leadership — these efforts show the possibility of northeast governance actors seeking to mend ties locally and internationally. In the northwest, the Syrian government granted a six-month extension to the UN to use the Bab Al-Hawa crossing for cross-border aid deliveries, while major water pumping projects to Idleb City were suspended by funding cuts, leading to supply shortages. An unapproved draft law on Public Morality from the Syrian Salvation Government surfaced in media outlets, causing concerns over personal freedoms.
