Executive summary

IInternational engagement

The French government hosted an international conference in Paris on 13 February to discuss support for Syria’s political transition. In attendance were representatives from 20 Arab and European countries, the US, the UN special envoy to Syria, the secretary-general of the League of Arab States, and the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Predictably, outcomes did not amount to any great move to action or departure from previous commitments to supporting the Syrian people, through a peaceful transition of power. The significance of the Paris Conference was that it signaled the first major interaction between the new Syrian government and the EU, and Japan, and another positive step to Syria’s global reintegration. As a French official said; “The Paris meeting aims to create a protective layer around the Syrian crisis, allowing the new authority time to resolve it by preventing destabilizing forces from interfering.”

Security, governance, and political stability

The Syrian National Dialogue Conference, an event promised by Ahmed al-Sharaa on taking power in December, was held on 25 February. It included 600 representatives from Syria’s political, civil and religious institutions, and academics and journalists. The Conference represented a landmark event in Sharaa’s commitment to inclusive and participatory transition of power in Syria, and was seen as such by some international actors. Critics though pointed out that the short timeline for both preparations and the event (just two weeks) did not give communities and their representatives time to properly prepare. Others complained that deserving leaders and experts were not invited to the Conference, or those abroad were invited too late to be able to attend. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), excluded from the Conference, dismissed its importance saying it did not represent all Syrian people.

Potentially prematurely, SDF commander Abu Omar al-Idlibi reported that a meeting between the SDF, Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) and the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) on 17 February had yielded an agreement to integrate into ministries in Damascus, under the new Syrian government. Since then, all actors have remained silent on the issue, with negotiations looking to have stagnated. The situation is further complicated by Türkiye, whose affiliated armed forces (which have agreed to integration), continue to attack the SDF.

Economic stability

The Syrian Central Bank published a report on 12 February showing the inflation rate and consumer price index (CPI) for the year 2024. The report showed that the inflation in the country has decreased for the first time in 13 years. Unfortunately, the positive impacts of lower inflation are offset by the reported liquidity crunch that has brought the economy to a halt and decimated residents’ purchasing power.

Since January 2025, media outlets reported an observed increase in fuel smuggling into Syria, particularly from Lebanon. The proliferation of informal fuel markets threatens the legal operations of gas stations and importers, which could result in business closures and cause hard currency to remain within illicit networks. While fuel smuggling is not new, it has the potential to destabilize the fuel market, increase financial duress on vulnerable populations, curb state revenues, and impact essential services.

Infrastructure and services

Syria’s new government has initiated a substantial restructuring of the public sector as part of a broader economic liberalization initiative. In a departure from decades of state-controlled economic management, the government intends to reduce inefficiencies, slash costs, and attract private investment. In reality, these reforms have resulted in widespread furloughs and cutbacks, affecting thousands of workers. Protests have erupted across governorates as employees resist cuts, while authorities contend that these modifications are essential for the modernization of Syria’s economy.

Humanitarian needs

The Dar‘a Directorate of Health held a local fundraising campaign, known as a faza’a, in February to raise money to rehabilitate the Dar’a National Hospital. The hospital, located in the middle of Dar‘a city on frontlines between Assad government forces and the opposition between 2013 and 2018, was underfunded, underserved, and badly damaged throughout the conflict. The faza’a was a resounding success and managed to raise $1 million – attracting the attention of the health minister, Maher al-Sharaa, who asked that donations go through official government channels.

Environment

Herders and traders are facing the prospect of significant financial losses following a plummet in livestock prices in Deir-ez-Zor in February. The cost of rearing the animals has become prohibitive, as precipitation drops and dry conditions persist, forcing herders to buy fodder amid shrinking grazing lands. Herders have flooded the market with their livestock to save money on feed. They have asked the AANES to help mitigate their financial losses and support the sector by opening a veterinary clinic, providing fodder at a subsidized price, and allowing them to export their sheep to Iraq.