Syria Monthly Report

The Syria-Turkey normalization track is resuming after a one-year pause. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has openly expressed Damascus’ willingness to all initiatives to restore the relationship between Syria and Turkey, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not ruled out a possible meeting with Assad. Iraq expressed an interest in mediating the negotiations, and Russia is pushing the process in the hope of reaching a settlement. While there is work to be done by both sides on building trust, the road to a full rapprochement will be complex, given an internationally shared preoccupation with preventing a regional spillover of the war in Gaza and the influence of the US on the rapprochement process.

In south and central Syria, the city of As-Sanamayn is becoming a new hub for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Dar‘a governorate. ISIS slogans appeared on the city's walls and videos of alleged ISIS combatants parading the streets were circulated on social media. These events follow the ousting of alleged ISIS affiliates from other parts of the governorate, which has driven them towards As-Sanamayn. Elsewhere, residents in Lattakia governorate complained of frequent water cuts, lasting from several days up to weeks. Local authorities have blamed these cuts on power outages due to infrastructure malfunctions and fuel shortages. Meanwhile, the Syrian Ministry of Defense has announced plans to demobilize tens of thousands of reservists. The demobilization is part of efforts to restructure the Syrian Arab Army into a professional army reliant on volunteers.

In northeast Syria, the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) made its budget public for the first time. The published document reveals that the AANES will be $389 million in deficit at the end of 2024 due to loss of revenue, particularly in oil and gas production. The release of the budget is evidence of the AANES’s increasing desire to perform the role of a state and guarantee its residents financial transparency. The move also allows it to justify its reasons for increasing prices and reducing subsidies. In addition, the AANES announced the postponement of its municipal elections, originally scheduled for 11 June. The decision was ostensibly made at the request of participating political parties, concerned that insufficient time had been allotted for campaigning. It is more likely, however, that the postponement was motivated by geopolitical considerations, such as threats issued by Turkey in an attempt to avert the elections.

In northwest Syria, the local council in the city of Al-Bab announced the reopening of Abu Al-Zendin crossing, which connects opposition-controlled Al-Bab in eastern Aleppo to government-held Aleppo city. The announcement caused widespread indignation among residents in Al-Bab, who immediately staged a protest against the decision. Separate protests erupted in cities and villages across northwest Syria following a spate of violence against Syrian refugees in Turkey. Clashes followed in multiple protest locations, where at least four civilians were killed and 20 others were injured. Protesters also attempted to storm Turkish military points and lowered Turkish flags in several locations, including Bab Al-Salamah crossing. Cases of poisoning from contaminated drinking water were recorded elsewhere in northwest Syria, and a particular water crisis hit Al-Bab. In parallel, the northwest is facing a widening health crisis. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) announced that nearly 160 health facilities in the region, including 46 hospitals, will be forced to suspend operations by the end of June if donor funding is not increased. This comes as a significant blow to the 4.2 million people in northwest Syria who will be left without access to primary, secondary, and specialized healthcare services.