Syria Monthly Report

Summary

In this May edition of the HAT monthly report, we introduce an economic overview that covers the different exchange rates used across the country and a line-graph tracking the fluctuations in the exchange rates over the past two years. Additionally, a graph showing the affordability of basic food items over a quarter across the different zones of control has also been added to the section.

Speculation over a Turkish operation targeting Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria increased over the past week, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcing that an operation on northern Syria may happen ‘suddenly’, without providing any timeframes for such an event. Rumors about the mobilization of Turkish troops to cities bordering Syria also surfaced as the spokesperson for the US State Department, Ned Price, stated that an incident of that sort would undermine regional stability.

The news of a potential Turkish operation comes weeks after the US State Department announced that foreign investments would be allowed in specific parts of northeast Syria, in Aleppo, Ar-Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zor, and al-Hasakeh, drawing criticism from both Turkey and the Syrian government, as US sanctions on Damascus remain. Additional funds are expected to be allocated to the Syrian Democratic Forces as part of the continued campaign against ISIS in the northeast.

Following President Assad’s visit to Iran on 8 May, it was announced that Iranian oil shipments are set to resume as the two countries discussed ways to increase their financial and economic cooperation. This comes as sizable increases in the prices of fuel derivatives were recorded in government- held areas, amid the continued depreciation of the Syrian pound and the decreased supply for fuel and oil derivatives as an effect of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, which has also caused significant decreases in the availability of subsidized bread in the country.