Syria Monthly Report

Summary

The significant escalation in the war between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon pushed hundreds of thousands of Syrians and Lebanese nationals to escape across the border into Syria in late September. The influx of more than 220,000 people had a profound impact on the Syrian economy, overburdening the Syrian government. Food, fuel, and rent prices increased in government-held areas as demand increased and trade was disrupted by Israeli attacks on border crossings between the two countries. The Syrian government facilitated the entry of Lebanese refugees into Syria but allegedly did not offer the same level of assistance to fleeing Syrians. CA – SYR forecast the impact of the current scenario in a September 2024 report titled “Potential Impacts of Israel-Hezbollah Escalations on Syria”.

In south and central Syria, a fuel crisis caused shortages in public transport, and increased electricity rationing. Oil shipments from Iran have slowed, amid threats of Israeli interception, while US sanctions have been extended to restrict Iranian vessels. The Syrian government besieged Zakyeh city in Rural Damascus, ostensibly to ensure deserters and conscription avoiders report to the Syrian army offices. Unofficially, Zakyeh has been causing problems for Damascus, as a former opposition enclave in close proximity to the capital, and potential launchpad for protest The government siege is as much about demonstrating power as exerting control.

In northeast Syria, the Democratic Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES) rolled out a new curriculum that Arab communities consider politicized. The curriculum has been criticized for excluding Islamic studies, prioritizing the Kurdish language, and introducing Genealogy as a subject, which is viewed as an attempt to distance students from their language and religion. AANES’s fuel subsidy cuts have begun impacting water stations and water truck drivers. The fuel shortages rendered several water pumping stations inoperable and led to water truckers holding strikes because they are receiving insufficient subsidies. This issue impacts water access to many residents in AANES-held areas.

In northwest Syria, the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) and UNICEF partnered to repair the Ain al Bayada water pumping station located in government-held areas to end the recurring water crisis in Al Bab city. Ain al Bayada is Al Bab’s primary water source and its loss has led to chronic water shortages. Following the repairs, a trial water pumping was conducted and the water successfully reached the city but was suspended to do more repairs. However, political differences between the Syrian government and SIG hinders the operability of the station. Also, the SIG Ministry of Defense announced the dissolution of the Northern Falcons, a faction in the Syrian National Army (SNA) in northern Aleppo and the integration of its combatants and weapons into other factions. However, the Northern Falcons refused to dissolve and it is suspected that the decision was made because of their opposition to the Syria-Turkey normalization. The issue has highlighted a clear division between those in the armed opposition who support and those who oppose normalization, which could upend the context in the northwest if both sides choose to settle the dispute using violence.