Executive summary

Syria’s 2025 wheat season is unfolding under some of the most challenging agroclimatic and institutional conditions in recent memory. Remote sensing and field data point to what may be the lowest output in northeast Syria since 2018, driven by drought, crop failure, and the collapse of rainfed cultivation. At the same time, structural uncertainty around procurement systems, governance arrangements, and inter-actor coordination is compounding the risk. 

 This flash report examines both the production outlook and the wider policy and market implications. It assesses the fragility of external sourcing efforts, the erosion of leverage between key actors, and the consequences for food access, inequality, and humanitarian planning across the country. 

Key Takeaways

• Wheat Output Collapse: Rainfed zones across northeast Syria are experiencing one of the worst growing seasons in recent memory. While estimates vary, pessimistic projections suggest production drops of over 80% in some areas compared to 2023.

• Imports Replace Local Production: With local yields plummeting, Syria is seeking wheat from Iraq, Türkiye, and international donors – but these channels remain fragmented, short-term, and insufficient to fully offset domestic gaps.

• Food Security Strained: Wheat shortages are likely to drive up prices, shrink bread bundles, and widen inequality – particularly affecting low-income and displaced populations who rely on subsidized bread as a primary source of calories.

• Livelihoods at Risk: Farmers face major financial losses, with many unable to recover production costs. This may accelerate rural flight and make agriculture increasingly unpopular as a livelihood option.

• Fragmented Procurement Systems: Institutional disarray and a lack of coordination between AANES and Damascus have left procurement channels unlinked, making efficient redistribution and market stabilization unlikely.

• Political Economy Unsettled: Wheat is no longer a reliable political bargaining chip between AANES and Damascus. While both sides appear to claim authority, procurement remains disjointed, and operational bottlenecks risk further disrupting the value chain.