Summary

Caused by both environmental and human-induced factors, drought events persist over extended periods and affect large areas with varying severity. Drought monitoring typically involves observing precipitation levels, temperature, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and surface water levels. These indicators can be monitored individually or used to calculate specialized drought severity indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index.

MEACAM is designed to provide geographically disaggregated drought predictions that serve as an early warning to the public, aid actors, and government agencies. Specifically, it predicts the health of cropland, which is linked to agricultural drought, and the effect of meteorological drought on crop growth, soil moisture, and crop yield. Agricultural drought is typically considered the second stage in drought progression, after meteorological drought and before hydrological drought. MEACAM produces one- to four-month projections of cropland health in geographically disaggregated areas and estimates human and material exposure, namely to affected populations and across selected portions of farmland.

About MEACAM research reports

The Middle East Anticipatory Climate Action Model (MEACAM) is an online platform featuring geographically disaggregated agricultural drought and flood predictions, and estimates of how many people, communities, and IDP camps will be affected. Currently, the Mercy Corps Crisis Analysis-developed platform provides national-level coverage of flooding for Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

Mercy Corps’s MEACAM research report series covers drought and flooding risks and trends in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, approaches to communicate early warning information in these countries, and the applicability of the information and predictions provided by MEACAM to applied early action and disaster risk reduction efforts. This report focuses on agricultural drought, and presents case studies of affected communities, highlighting both the challenges they faced and their successful adaptation strategies. The report also contains technical information on MEACAM’s statistical prediction model and the thresholds used to determine the likelihood of future agricultural drought in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.