Summary

Syria’s 2025 drought reflects a deepening crisis, marked not just by low rainfall but by a systemic unraveling of the country’s water cycle. What Syria faces is not just a seasonal dry spell, but a multi-sectoral crisis rooted in sustained environmental and hydrological degradation. This report presents key findings from a nationwide analysis of the drought, outlining the underlying hydrological drivers and the consequences now visible across ecological systems, livelihoods, and local markets.

Syria is experiencing a structural, not solely seasonal, drought. Multiple climate and hydrological indicators, including precipitation, runoff, baseflow, and evapotranspiration, show a persistent, countrywide decline. This points to a fundamental disruption of the hydrological cycle, not a short-term anomaly. With cyclical and cascading impacts throughout virtually all of Syria, the outcomes of a disrupted hydrological cycle could be long-lasting and hamper efforts to support communities and households, key service provision, public health and emergency response, and market systems.  

This report aims to diagnose the 2025 drought by unpacking both its drivers and its consequences. It is structured in two parts. First, we assess the climatic and hydrological dynamics underlying the drought, drawing on core variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and baseflow. Second, we trace the cascading impacts across ecological, agricultural, and human systems – from vegetation health and soil degradation to water service failures and market volatility. By combining technical data with on-ground consequences, the report provides a grounded view of how Syria’s water crisis is unfolding and what it signals for the country’s future.

Key findings

Drought Impacts

• Vegetation Stress: Remote sensing data shows severe deterioration in vegetation health, with NDVI dropping by up to 32% and NDMI by 70% in some governorates. Homs, Idleb, and Lattakia are among the hardest hit, with vegetation indicators falling to their lowest levels in years. Wheat production has dropped by up to 70% in parts of the country, while cultivated land has shrunk by 16% in southern Dar’a. 

• Soil Moisture Decline: Soil moisture levels have dropped by more than 80% in parts of Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh, and Idleb, indicating sustained root-zone dryness and limited water retention capacity. 

• Aquatic Ecosystems Under Strain: Syria’s freshwater environments are showing visible signs of stress. A mass fish die-off at Al-Raqqad Dam, along with turbidity levels in the Euphrates rising to 7 NTU – far exceeding the 1 to 5 NTU safe range – reflect deteriorating water quality and heightened risks to both aquatic life and human consumption. 

• Hydroelectric Disruption: Euphrates water levels have dropped nearly 6 meters since 2020 and continue to fall at 20 mm per day, leading to power shortages and irrigation collapse downstream.  

• Market Disruptions: The failure of rain-fed crops has triggered notable shortages in staple grains and animal feed. In Al-Hasakeh, barley prices surged to 4,500 SYP per kilogram, driven by poor harvests and rising demand from livestock breeders. Import dependence is growing, with lower-quality barley imports entering the market at 20–25% lower prices yet still falling short of meeting regional needs. 

Climatic and Hydrological Drivers 

• Precipitation Deficit: Nationwide rainfall is down by 27.8% compared to long-term averages. Key governorates such as Idleb, Aleppo, and Al-Hasakeh recorded deficits exceeding 30%. 

• Suppressed Evapotranspiration: Rates remained 20–30% below normal throughout the 2025 season, signaling severe soil dryness and reduced vegetation productivity. 

• Runoff and Baseflow Collapse: Surface runoff and baseflow levels are critically low. Idleb, Aleppo, Quneitra, and Al-Hasakeh all recorded baseflow deficits over 80%, threatening springs, shallow aquifers, and water infrastructure.