Executive summary

The ongoing negotiations between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Damascus underscore profound complexities, as both parties grapple with reaching a consensus on the terms of military integration and overarching governance matters. While the SDF tries to maintain a certain level of autonomy within the new Syrian military structure, Damascus remains resolute in its demand for complete integration. This impasse has resulted in stagnation and strategic maneuvering. Numerous variables, including international support and the shifting dynamics within the region, may promote progress; however, substantial challenges encompassing escalating tensions with armed groups and unresolved resource management conflicts persist. 

Concurrently, internal discord and military confrontations in SDF-held areas, notably Ar-Raqqa, Deir-ez-Zor, and Menbij, are putting pressure on the SDF to show it can maintain stability. These developments may further complicate the SDF's standing in negotiations, highlighting the difficulties of balancing local grievances, national politics, and overarching geopolitical factors, with regional stakeholders also potentially influencing outcomes.