Executive summary

Electricity provision is one of the most pressing challenges facing Syria’s transitional government. Years of war left the grid fragmented, with nearly half of high-voltage transmission towers damaged, destroyed, or stolen, and generation capacity reduced to around 2,200 MW, less than half of pre-conflict levels. Between 2010 and 2022, per capita electricity consumption declined from 1,611 kilowatt-hours (kWh) to 690 kWh, a drop of almost 57%.

This report analyzes how electricity consumption has changed since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Since no comprehensive consumption data exists at the community level, the study uses night lights reflectance (NLR) satellite imagery as a proxy for electricity use, combined with survey data on sources of electricity and daily hours of supply from REACH’s Humanitarian Overview of Syria. To capture how electricity is distributed and consumed on the ground, the analysis introduces the concept of functional service areas, clusters of communities that share consumption dynamics which often cut across administrative boundaries.

Findings show that Syria’s electricity recovery is progressing but uneven. By mid-2025, electricity consumption had increased in 76% of Syrian locations compared to the previous year, signaling recovery but still falling short of pre-2019 levels. Divergences are stark: only 27% of locations in Damascus recorded higher NLR in 2025 compared to 2024, the weakest performance nationally, while 97% of locations in Aleppo under former SSG control improved.

Four central insights explain these patterns:

• Baseline effects dominate: Communities with lower electricity access before December 2024 have recorded faster proportional gains. Regression results show that for every 10% decrease in baseline NLR, growth rates increased by an average of 1.6%.

• Electricity sources shape recovery: Communities historically reliant on the national grid recovered faster than those dependent on generators or solar. In Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES) areas, NLR growth rates were 14–19% higher in communities connected to the main network compared to those relying on generators, and communities with fewer than six daily hours of supply grew about 9% more slowly than those with six or more hours.

• Governance arrangements drive outcomes: In Deir-ez-Zor, 84% of communities that transitioned from Assad to the new Syrian government improved year-on-year, compared to 62% that remained under AANES, showing how governance arrangements condition recovery.

• Opportunities and risks diverge: For humanitarian and development actors, uneven recovery risks entrenching vulnerability. For private investors, catch-up zones represent growing demand markets, but political and infrastructural risks remain high.

Taken together, the report highlights both the potential and fragility of Syria’s re-electrification. Addressing grid bottlenecks, overcoming political barriers, and targeting lagging service areas will be essential for improving electricity provision in a way that ensures equitable access to the basic services, from clean water to healthcare, that depend on reliable power.