Syria Monthly Report

Summary

International engagement

The overthrow of the Assad regime, and the establishment of a new government has opened the door for Syria’s reentry into global political and economic systems. The new administration has achieved considerable progress in normalizing diplomatic relations, re-establishing engagement with international forums, and cultivating renewed trust among both regional and global stakeholders. While the new administration’s performance has been largely positive, the path towards normalization is still in its early stages. Many states, particularly in the West, remain cautious, emphasizing the need for continued political transition, particularly regarding minority rights and governance reforms. Although full normalization remains contingent on “actions not words,” the frequency of diplomatic exchanges suggests that Syria’s role is increasingly becoming a partner rather than a pariah.

Security, governance, and political stability

Israeli forces conducted a ground incursion into southern Syria following the fall of Assad, citing security concerns and the need to protect the northern border. Initially, they took control of the UN-monitored bufferzone between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights, then moved into Syria, capturing more than 370 square kilometers of territory, which include strategic water sources and elevated positions. A lack of response from Damascus, and the strategic importance of the land means the Israel military is unlikely to withdraw in the short term. Tensions in Ar-Raqqa have escalated since mid-December due to the curfews and stringent measures implemented by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against activists. The SDF’s heightened security measures and actions have impeded economic activity, resulting in financial losses for business owners, and risk exacerbating public resentment and distrust towards the authorities. Meanwhile, Damascus has been working on a cohesive security structure. It aims to incorporate the multiple fractured security actors under a newly restructured Ministry of Defense (MoD). While the different security actors have expressed willingness to integrate, issues of autonomy, structure and special privileges are all sticking points which the new government will have to navigate to ensure cohesion across state security.

Economic stability

The transitional government’s border authority issued a decision in mid-January to unify customs duties on imported goods across all Syrian border crossings. This has impacted import costs and, by extension, prices of imported goods: Customs tariffs at crossings linking Syria to Türkiye went up, by between 250–600%, but went down by up to 60% at borders formerly controlled by the Assad government. This policy could reduce imports and restrict economic growth in the short term but could lead to improved economic stability in the long term. In Damascus, the new Ministry of Finance has revoked a series of restrictive economic policies to facilitate trade, encourage currency circulation, and revitalize economic activity. It has also pledged a 400% increase for public sector workers, to be paid for by the state. While these measures appear corrective, low reserves and liquidity shortages persist, making intervention difficult.

Humanitarian needs

The fall of the Assad regime has provided Syrian IDPs with the opportunity to return to their homes, free from persecution. However, for many living in camps, the option of return is out of reach – their homes have been damaged or destroyed by conflict, they do not have the identification documents required to leave or return, and in some cases, are too poor to afford transportation and re-settlement expenses. As funding continues to dry up – a trend noticed before the fall of Assad and accelerated by the US government’s stop-work order on foreign aid programs – residents’ suffering deepens. Although returns have been made possible, emptying the camps will take time, and in the meantime, residents are in desperate need of continued support and services.