Syria Monthly Report

Summary

Please note, this Monthly Report was drafted before the events of 8 December, prior to the opposition takeover of Damascus and the fall of Assad. The opposition offensives are referred to in the section ‘Opposition offensives capture Syria’, however are not covered in any detail. CA–SYR is working on a situation report which will provide in-depth analysis on the unfolding situation, and has already published a report on the initial stages of the offensive which captured Aleppo.

The offensives launched by opposition forces in the northwest dominated events in Syria in late November. The initial push captured government-held Aleppo, with Syrian armed forces withdrawing south, and only limited resistance from Damascus in the form of aerial bombardments on parts of the city. In just a week, the opposition had swept through the country, taking Hama, Homs, then eventually Damascus and ousting president Bashar al-Assad, who reportedly fled to Moscow.

In south and central Syria, Israeli airstrikes on strategic targets belonging to Iran-backed militia and Hezbollah continued. At the time, Assad looked to be avoiding any significant confrontation with the Israelis, going so far as to distance himself from his Iranian allies, and warn Palestinian groups in Syria against large gatherings or potentially incendiary meetings. Protesters in As-Sweida also doubled down, despite intimidation tactics from Damascus.

In the northeast, Turkish bombardments on infrastructure is likely to compound the difficulties faced by residents, as without fuel and electricity there are shortages in transportation, fuel for heating, and potentially water (via water trucks), and economic growth is curtailed. The SDF is tied up combating both the Turkish threat, and small-scale resurgence by ISIS; without significant manpower or resources, the group continues to launch evasive guerrilla attacks from the desert to good effect. ISIS maintains a strong ideological influence in the area, with camps and prisons home to alleged ISIS sympathizers.

In the northwest, flooding has damaged hundreds of tents in IDP camps. People living in the camps are scrambling to prepare for winter, amid ever-reducing levels of funding and dwindling support from local and international actors.