Syria Monthly Report

Summary

In Syrian government-held areas, the July 2022 HAT Monthly report investigates two separate developments indicating that the security architecture in southern Syria continues to fracture. In the areas surrounding Jasim, including the city itself, increased claims of ISIS attacks have led government forces to focus attention on countering local armed groups; whether this is indeed the proliferation of ISIS, or rather a component of cracking down on previously reconciled armed groups, is up for debate. To the east, in As-Sweida governorate, tensions between local stakeholders, including prominent Druze power brokers and their armed allies, reached a boiling point with a pro-government armed actor, Qouwat al- Fajr; in the end, Qouwat al-Fajr, including its leadership, were ultimately defeated. These developments lead to questions surrounding the makeup and future architecture for security in the region.

Separately, the HAT provides interpretations of the meaning behind Bashar al-Assad’s first visit to Aleppo since the beginning of the conflict. In early July, Lebanese politicians continued to echo their populist intentions of repatriating Syrian refugees, ascribing blame to the socio-economic crisis plaguing the country. The HAT explores the shortcomings of this idea, particularly from the obstacles that exist in the localities to which Syrian refugees would hypothetically be returning.

This month’s report also provides a deep dive into developments related to wheat market dynamics in Syria, both in terms of domestic production and how global developments may (or may not) impact Syria based on areas of control, and associated actors, throughout the country.

In northeast Syria, an SDF conscription campaign was launched in late July, building upon localized – though geographically broad – tensions with local communities, the most notable culminating in a general strike in Menbij. Separately, an update to reflect the lack of allied support for a Turkish offensive in northern Syria is provided, demonstrating that while markets have been affected by ‘emergency’ decrees, movement and displacement in anticipation of an offensive have largely come to a halt.

Finally, a forward-looking perspective on the UN Security Council’s renewal of the cross-border resolution, in particular its shortcomings, highlights the challenges related to a failure to renew in January 2023.