Syria Monthly Report

Eight EU member states wrote a letter calling on the Union’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell to "review and assess" its approach to Syria and replace it with "a more active, outcome-driven, and operational Syria policy." The letter signals its signees frustration with the EU’s persistent failure to bring the Syrian government to the negotiating table or reach a lasting political resolution. That failure has since elicited calls for a more realistic approach centring on reengagment with the Syrian government, particularly among states taking a more hardline stance on immigration. , Nonetheless, given conflicting priorities among member states and the Syrian government’s record of human rights abuses, the EU as a whole is unlikely to accept the eight countries’ proposal.

In south and central Syria, the Syrian government is in the process of switching from an in-kind to a cash-based system for all 4.1 million residents participating in its subsidy program. The switch appears to be motivated by the government’s desire to pare back subsidy provision and preserve resources, but could have an adverse impact on cash-strapped subsidy recipients. Residents who formerly benefitted from subsidized commodities irrespective of inflation will now have their cash assistance regularly devalued. The Syrian parliamentary elections were held on 15 July but were met with apathy among residents. Voter turnout was generally low and several communities actively boycotted the elections, closing down polling stations and calling the vote a sham. Since all elected candidates are either members of or affiliated with the Ba’ath Party, the elections are indeed unlikely to usher in genuine change.

In the northeast, the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) introduced a new law to regulate the electricity sector. An attempt to remediate the lingering impact of Turkey’s bombardment in October 2023 on electricity provision, the law looks set to boost private investment in the sector. The AANES also delivered on a long-standing tribal grievance by issuing an amnesty law, and showed signs of reactivating Kurdish–Kurdish dialogue. Given the AANES’s concerns at the prospect of a resumption in the Turkey-Syria normalization track, these conciliatory measures could be a move to strengthen its position by fortifying internal fronts.

In northwest Syria, protestors attacked an HTS police station in the city of Bennsh, injuring one police officer and defacing several buildings. HTS accused anti-HTS activists of perpetrating the attack and deployed security and military reinforcements to blockade the city. In addition to demonstrating the group’s commitment to eradicating the popular movement, the positioning of the group’s military wing at the forefront of the security response may undermine residents’ trust in the military and prevent it breaking ranks. Syrian government forces have escalated their drone attacks on opposition-held areas of northwest Syria. The attacks reached their apogee in July, which saw the launching of 84 drones targeting various civilian sites and terrorizing the local population. The attacks could be a cost-effective means for the government to apply pressure on Turkey, a practical training for Syrian government forces, of a means to frighten civilians away from areas close to the frontline.