Syria Monthly Report

Summary

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, launched an inter-agency emergency appeal on 7 October for $324 million to support over 470,000 displaced Syrian and Lebanese nationals fleeing the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon. The response has been generally unsatisfactory thus far, with UN agencies only receiving a small portion of the necessary funds. Syria’s allies, the UAE, Russia, and Iran have engaged in bilateral cooperation with Damascus, however support still falls short of needs. In the interim, the probability of increased international and regional engagement with Damascus to address the crisis is low, with donor fatigue, multiple regional crises, and Damascus's incapacity to disengage from Iran likely factors.

Israel enhanced its defenses along the border with the occupied Golan Heights in southwest Syria, initiating aerial and restricted, ground incursions during which its forces captured a Syrian Iranian affiliate. To date, Damascus has refrained from publicly commenting on these incidents. However, it has also endeavored to limit the presence of Hezbollah and Iran affiliates in Syria's southern region, collaborating with Russia in what appears to be an effort to distance itself from regional hostilities. Meanwhile, the Syrian government disclosed its anticipated 2025 budget. Although it indicates an increase in nominal value in Syrian pounds, there is minimal change when adjusted to US dollars and adjusted for inflation.

Turkey responded to an alleged Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attack on Ankara in late October by targeting multiple locations in Aleppo and Al-Hasakeh. In addition to administrative and military facilities, Turkey also targeted oil plants, electricity installations, and other civilian service-related infrastructure. The recent hostilities could result in market fluctuations, particularly due to the reported decrease in oil production. The central leadership of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Deir-ez-Zor announced the restructuring of the Deir-ez-Zor Military Council (DMC). The new structure was primarily a reorganization of existing personnel into new roles, which served as a means for the SDF to preserve the status quo. Additionally, informed sources suggested that the International Coalition exerted pressure on the SDF, in order to shore up local support amid an increase in hostilities with Iran-backed militias in the area.

Clashes between armed factions in Syrian Interim Government (SIG)-held areas in northwest Syria reached a climax, eventually resulting in the dissolution of the Northern Falcons, a group which opposed Turkish normalization with Damascus. The clashes forced other factions to choose to either align more strongly with Turkey, or to continue to oppose normalization. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes targeted Syrian Salvation Government (SSG)-controlled regions for the first time in three months. The airstrikes primarily targeted the SSG-held Idleb, resulting in the displacement of thousands of civilians and severe damage to a power station. This ultimately impacted water provision, which is expected to have a negative impact on agriculture.