Executive summary

For the first time in nearly five years, substantial changes in territorial control have occurred as opposition forces in Syria have successfully recaptured territory from the Syrian government. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA). Two operations, Deterrence of Aggression and Freedom Dawn, began from Daret Azza and Al-Bab and pushed Syrian government forces out of most of Aleppo city and parts of northern Hama governorate. The Syrian government's response was minimal, with most resistance occurring in the initial stages. The government, along with Russian forces, resorted to aerial strikes in opposition-held areas; however, they have been unable to reclaim lost territory.   

Humanitarian conditions have worsened, with reports of over 60,000 people displaced recorded in Aleppo and rural Idleb, towards Idleb city, northeast Syria, Hama, Lattakia, and Tartous. Syrian government and Russian bombardments have led to civilian casualties and injuries, and civilian infrastructure has also been damaged, with expected repercussions yet to be felt.   

A variety of factors likely prompted HTS and the SNA to commence their operations. Local pressure has been building in opposition-held areas in northwest Syria; the Syrian government's dependence on Iranian and Hezbollah forces has also created key vulnerabilities. Broader geopolitical implications, directly and indirectly, related to Syria, may have forced HTS and the SNA to take preemptive actions, consolidating their position in future political negotiations with Turkey's tacit sanction.   

In this report, CA–SYR unpacks the details of these operations and outlines five potential scenarios for the conflict's trajectory. Each scenario has varying implications for conflict dynamics, governance, economy, and humanitarian conditions, and are as follows:    

• Scenario 1: HTS maintains control over currently held territory.   

• Scenario 2: HTS continues to advance south beyond Hama city and encourages localized uprisings and defections.   

• Scenario 3: Syrian government counteroffensive pushes back HTS’ advances back north, aside from Aleppo city and its surroundings.   

• Scenario 4: Syrian government forces recapture all newly gained territory, including Aleppo city.   

• Scenario 5: The SNA captures Menbij, including key trade routes, Euphrates River crossings, and Menbij city.   

As it stands, continued conflict, governance and economic disruptions, as well as humanitarian challenges, are critical considerations. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing hostilities, the actors involved, and the potential future scenarios, offering valuable insights for response actors amid the rapidly changing situation in Syria.