Executive summary

Syria’s caretaker government is working on several reforms to facilitate trade, encourage currency circulation, and revitalize economic activity in the country. It started by revoking a series of restrictive economic policies implemented by the Assad government that were detrimental to trade and financial transactions. The immediate impact is seen to be an appreciation of the Syrian pound, stalling inflation and increasing the value of household income. Though this change has been encouraging, the measures have also resulted in potentially unintended negative outcomes, highlighting the broader challenges for the government trying to rebuild an economy suffering from over a decade of mismanagement and corruption. 

CA–SYR analyzes the impact of new economic policies that, while aimed at stabilizing Syria’s economy, have led to unintended consequences that have broad economic and humanitarian implications. This report aims to provide response actors with an understanding of the current economic landscape in Syria and how it could potentially impact their work and ability to provide humanitarian assistance. The principal findings include:  

• Liquidity shortages limit reforms: The new Syrian government is trying to revive the economy by easing trade and currency circulation, but low foreign reserves and liquidity constraints prevent market intervention. 

• Families struggling to meet basics: Many households cannot buy essential goods due to liquidity shortages, aggravating humanitarian conditions since 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line. 

• Bank restrictions threaten aid delivery: Potential withdrawal and transfer restrictions could delay cash assistance programs and purchases, threatening vulnerable populations. 

• Cash-based aid faces challenges: Unofficial exchange rates can skew cash assistance, requiring market monitoring and cash transfer value adjustments. 

• Expanding economic disparities: Families with US dollar remittances can preserve purchasing power, while those with stagnant earnings and savings face increasing economic hardship, needing enhanced household vulnerability assessment. 

• Public sector unrest: Salary delays might frustrate government workers, limiting service delivery and emphasizing humanitarian needs.